The Shatterbelt Brief is a weekly column by Brian Whitmore examining the shifting political and geopolitical dynamics of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. The views expressed are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Independence Avenue Media.
Russian state media warns that another war is coming — this time against Lithuania. Kremlin autocrat Vladimir Putin claims that the Baltic states are violating the rights of Russian speakers and vows a response. And Moscow has issued an explicit threat to NATO, saying it is prepared to use nuclear weapons if the alliance attempts to isolate Russia’s western exclave, Kaliningrad.
After months of intensifying speculation that Putin’s Kremlin regime is planning some form of escalatory move in Europe, the Baltic front is clearly heating up.
The first hint of this came on Sept. 25, when RIA Novosti, the Russian state-run news agency, published a provocative article titled, “Russia is facing another special military operation. It will be very short.” The article was quickly removed from the agency’s website, but not before other media picked it up and disseminated its contents. The original was also preserved in its entirety as a web archive.
And boy oh boy is it a doozy.
The author, Alexander Nosovich, is a member of the Kremlin-connected Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and has been linked to Russian malign influence operations in the Baltics.
In response to Vilnius’ recent moves to lift a constitutional ban on stationing nuclear weapons on its territory, Nosovich calls Lithuania “a suicidal country with no brains whatsoever” and “a small but proud kamikaze in Russia’s near abroad.” He also accuses Vilnius of “playing the role of a new Cuba in a new Cuban Missile Crisis.”
He concludes that a Russian war against Lithuania would be over quickly, because “a military conflict in the Baltics, simply due to geography, cannot be the same as in Ukraine.” And then he plays the nuclear card, writing: “Since our adversaries are the first to raise the nuclear threat, Russia can even afford to forgo deploying ground forces. Only missiles with the appropriate warheads. The solution isn’t just quick, it’s lightning-fast.”
The Lithuanian parliament did indeed pass a measure on Sept. 22 to lift a ban on hosting nuclear weapons on its territory. The move, which still needs to clear two more votes to be enacted, appears related to changes in France’s nuclear doctrine. President Emmanuel Macron has proposed extending his country’s nuclear umbrella to other European nations that agree to host its nuclear-capable strategic aircraft.
Nosovich’s article was taken down within hours. And that would have been that — just another unhinged article in the Russian media, if not for what came next.
On the same day Nosovich’s screed appeared, Putin told reporters that Russia was “not preparing for any military action against Europe.” But he added that “we know that the rights of the Russian-speaking population are being violated in the Baltic countries. But we already know how to respond, and we have developed a certain approach to this.” And reassuring exactly nobody, he said Moscow was “responding in terms of humanitarian aid and international law.” Putin offered no details about the allegations.
As journalist Sevinj Osmanqizi writes in the Kyiv Post, “The Kremlin has long used claims about the protection of Russian-speaking populations as part of its political messaging toward neighboring states to lay the groundwork for hostile actions.”
And that’s still not all.
On Sept. 29, Russia issued a stark written warning to NATO: Moscow is prepared to use nuclear weapons if the alliance attempts to cut off Kaliningrad, Russia’s western exclave that is surrounded by NATO members Lithuania and Poland. The warning was delivered to NATO headquarters in Brussels and posted on the websites of various Russian embassies in Europe.
“There should be no mistake — Russia would be ready to use all its arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO countries try to isolate Kaliningrad region from the rest of the country,” the statement, as posted by the Russian Embassy in Ireland, said.
NATO has not made any recent moves against Kaliningrad, but some alliance military officers and officials have said that in the event that Russia attacked an alliance member, military installations in Kaliningrad would be fair game. This seems logical, of course. Kaliningrad hosts Russia’s main Baltic naval base, nuclear-capable Iskander missiles are deployed there, and it is a platform Moscow can use to strike deep into Europe.
But since it is boxed in by NATO members — Poland and Lithuania on land and Sweden and Denmark across the Baltic Sea — it is vulnerable and difficult to reinforce in wartime.
So we seem to have three pretexts for potential Russian aggression: Lithuania lifting its nuclear ban. Imaginary human rights abuses against Russian speakers in the Baltics. And NATO’s posture toward Kaliningrad.
But here’s the thing. Nobody would be talking about cutting off Kaliningrad if Russia hadn’t invaded Ukraine and wasn’t menacing Europe with an ongoing sabotage campaign. Just this week, Estonia formally blamed Russia for an arson attack in August on the defense plant Milrem Robotics in Tallinn.
No Baltic state would be considering hosting nuclear weapons if they didn’t see a credible threat from a nuclear-armed Russia intent on flexing its missiles.
And the allegations of rights abuses against Russian speakers in the Baltics are, of course, absurd.
These are all manufactured crises. But given Russia’s track record of using manufactured crises as a pretext for war, they are also dangerous.
