The Shatterbelt Brief is a weekly column by Brian Whitmore examining the shifting political and geopolitical dynamics of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. The views expressed are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Independence Avenue Media.
While many American political junkies following the midterm elections this week were obsessed with marquee races like the high-profile contest for the Texas Senate seat, Ukrainians were busy eyeballing battles below the radar.
Like, for example, the race for Indiana’s 5th Congressional District.
Since 2021, that seat had been occupied by the Ukrainian-born Republican lawmaker Victoria Spartz, who emigrated to the United States in 2000. Despite her heritage, Spartz had emerged as one of the most vocal critics of Kyiv in Congress.
In 2024, Spartz voted against a crucial $60.8 billion aid package for Ukraine. She cast that vote just three days after a Russian missile strike on her native Chernihiv that killed 18 civilians and injured 78. And in April 2025, she told The Daily Telegraph that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia, arguing that her native country was just too weak to resist Moscow. She also referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team as “morons and crooks.”
And on Nov. 3, she lost her seat to Democratic challenger J.D. Ford.
She wasn’t alone. Overall, opponents of U.S. assistance to Ukraine and apologists for Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression had a very bad night. The Kyiv Post lists at least six “anti-Ukraine incumbents” who lost their seats. And they did so at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to normalize relations with Moscow and pressure Ukraine into making concessions to Russia.
The election, of course, was fought not over Ukraine but over domestic issues such as the cost of living and corruption. Nevertheless, for Ukraine, it could be meaningful.
Those losing their seats included a pair of congressmen from Wisconsin. In the state’s 3rd Congressional District, Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who has voted consistently against aid to Ukraine since 2023, fell to Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who has called for Washington to back Ukraine and “stand up to bullies like President Putin.” And in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, a four-term lawmaker and vocal opponent of support for Ukraine, was defeated by Democratic challenger Mitchell Berman.
Also defeated was Republican Rep. Scott Perry, a persistent opponent of aid to Ukraine, in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.
And while some opponents of aid to Ukraine, like Republican Rep. Paul Gosar in Arizona’s 9th District and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th District, retained their seats, so did some of Kyiv’s most vocal supporters, including Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th District and Ukrainian-born Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman in Virginia’s 7th District.
Some pro-Ukraine Republicans who consistently backed Kyiv also went down in defeat in the Democratic rout, including Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. But as the Kyiv Post notes, they are being replaced by Democrats who also back Ukraine.
For example, outgoing Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn, a strong Ukraine supporter who lost his primary, will be succeeded by Democrat James Talarico, who has expressed strong support for Kyiv, called on Texas to divest from Russia — and was the target of a malicious Russian disinformation campaign.
“The unseated Republicans are being succeeded by Democrats, while the flip in party control grants leadership new powers to schedule pro-Ukraine measures and investigate executive decisions,” the author, Lesia Dubenko, wrote. “The crucial issue is not raw headcount, but institutional effectiveness.”
The markets are taking note. Ukraine’s dollar-denominated bonds jumped to their highest levels in a month on the U.S. election results, Bloomberg reported, making them one of the best emerging-market performers on Nov. 4.
And a popular meme made the rounds depicting Zelenskyy joyfully eating popcorn, drinking a beer, and watching the election returns.
The Kremlin’s response was, let’s just say, muted. “Trump remains in office, and we sincerely hope that he will continue his peace efforts,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
The U.S. president does indeed have enormous latitude to conduct foreign affairs. But the change of power on Capitol Hill is likely to dramatically reshape congressional oversight of American sanctions policy toward Russia as well as its military assistance to Kyiv.
In the Senate, strong Ukraine supporters are expected to lead key committees: Delaware Democrat Chris Coons is expected to chair the Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island is in line to lead the Armed Services Committee, and either Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii or Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut are likely to chair the Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, which oversees international development and foreign assistance.
And the fact that Republican Mike Johnson, who has consistently blocked aid to Ukraine, will be replaced as speaker of the House of Representatives by Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, a strong supporter of Kyiv, was not lost on the Ukrainian media. European Pravda noted that Jeffries “played a central role in the fight to pass the Ukraine aid bill” in 2024.
The war drags on, of course. As the votes were being tabulated in the United States on the night of Nov. 3-4, Russia launched 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles in attacks on nine Ukrainian regions.
But for Ukrainians, Washington may have just become significantly friendlier.
More commentary in Brian Whitmore’s Shatterbelt Brief.
