As President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, Michael Carpenter, the former National Security Council senior director for Europe and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, said the meeting is likely to become more than a conventional diplomatic engagement between rival powers.
“It’s going to be a real clash of personalities,” Carpenter told Independence Avenue Media.
“Both Trump and Xi have extraordinary command of their governments and are able to make decisions almost completely unfettered by other advisers within the executive branch of both countries,” Carpenter said.
Carpenter said both leaders enter the summit with unusually centralized political authority.
“Xi’s China is an almost totalitarian-like system in which he decides essentially everything in terms of policy,” Carpenter said. “But Trump has also sidelined a lot of his critics in the U.S. and controls both his party — at least controls both houses of Congress. So, he has a lot of power in the U.S. system as well.”
The summit comes as Washington and Beijing attempt to stabilize relations strained by trade disputes, technology restrictions, military tensions around Taiwan and broader geopolitical competition across the Indo-Pacific.
Taiwan, arms sales and strategic ambiguity
Taiwan is expected to be one of the most politically sensitive issues at the summit.
According to reporting in the Associated Press, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed Taiwan and broader bilateral tensions with Secretary of State Marco Rubio ahead of the meeting, underscoring Beijing’s view that the island remains the central fault line in U.S.-China relations.
“He’ll bring up Taiwan, I think, more than I will,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on May 11. “But I think that a discussion will be a little bit about energy and about the very beautiful country of Iran.”
Asked directly whether the United States should continue selling weapons to Taiwan, Trump confirmed that the topic would be discussed in Beijing.
“President Xi would like us not to,” Trump said. “And I’ll have that discussion. That’s one of the many things I’ll be talking about.”
Trump also framed the issue in geographic and strategic terms.
“We’re 9,500 miles,” Trump said of the United States. “He’s 67 miles. It’s a little bit of a difference.”
Carpenter argued that Beijing may now believe Washington is entering the summit in a weaker negotiating position than it would have been several months ago, potentially affecting discussions surrounding Taiwan as well as technology restrictions and trade.
Carpenter suggested the negotiations are likely to extend beyond trade and military issues and into diplomatic language.
“Perhaps even in terms of the language that the U.S. agrees to on Taiwan, in terms of its respect for Taiwanese sovereignty going forward,” Carpenter said.
Long-standing U.S. policy acknowledges Beijing’s position that there is “one China” but does not recognize the sovereignty of the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan. The U.S. maintains unofficial relations with the self-governing democratic island but refrains from supporting formal Taiwanese independence or unilateral changes to the cross-strait status quo.
Across Washington policy circles, Taiwan has emerged as one of the clearest benchmarks for evaluating the summit’s outcome.
Writing for the conservative Heritage Foundation, analysts Andrew Harding and Jeff Smith listed “the United States shifts closer to China’s position on Taiwan” among several “unfavorable outcomes” the Trump administration should avoid during the Beijing summit.
The paper noted that Xi has been “persistent in stating his ambition to absorb Taiwan” and could seek commitments from Trump opposing future Taiwanese moves toward formal independence, as well as limitations — or at least consultations with Beijing — on future U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
“Any movement away from America’s long-standing positions on Taiwan,” the paper stated, “could provide General Secretary Xi with an enormous domestic victory, undermine confidence in the U.S. among its allies and security partners along the First Island Chain, strain Taiwan-U.S. relations, and embolden China to push for even more concessions.”
Meanwhile, writing for the Atlantic Council, analyst Melanie Hart argued that one measure of success for the summit would be reassuring U.S. allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific that Washington remains committed to regional deterrence and security stability.
Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and shifting leverage
Carpenter argued that the ongoing war with Iran — and Washington’s struggle to restore stable navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — may have altered the geopolitical atmosphere surrounding the Beijing summit.
“I think for Xi, he sees that he has leverage over Trump,” Carpenter said.
One of the world’s most strategically important energy chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz has become central both to the Iran war and wider global economic concerns. According to Associated Press reporting, the Trump administration has pressed Beijing to use its leverage with Tehran to help reopen the waterway.
“The U.S. military, despite its brilliance tactically, has been unable to fundamentally change the geopolitics in the Persian Gulf over the course of these last two months,” Carpenter said.
Despite the challenges, Trump projected confidence before departing for Beijing.
“I have a great relationship with President Xi,” he told reporters. “We’re doing a lot of business, but it’s smart business.”
Whether the Beijing summit produces concrete agreements or simply lowers tensions temporarily remains uncertain. But with Taiwan, trade, technology and the fallout from the Iran war all expected to dominate discussions, the meeting is likely to become one of the most consequential diplomatic encounters of Trump’s second term.
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