Voters delivered their first nationwide verdict on President Donald Trump’s second term. Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in what some pundits are already calling a “blue tsunami.”
According to the Associated Press, on Nov. 4 Democrats had already won at least 54 Senate seats to Republicans’ 44, and 237 House seats to 139, well past the 218 needed for a majority. The New York Times projects that Democrats will win the national House vote by about 13 percentage points, which would be the largest margin for either party in congressional elections in at least half a century.
In Ukraine, after nearly two years working with Trump — and after the flare-up in relations in October following the U.S. president’s decision to agree to a diesel fuel deal with Russia — the question is what might change in the relationship between Washington and Kyiv.
Independence Avenue Media put that question to two Washington analysts shortly before the vote: Melinda Haring, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Their answer, in short, is that a Democratic Congress can do a lot, but not everything many Ukrainians hope.
“It’s not so simple, my friends,” Haring said.
The Races Where Ukraine Matters
The wave added senators who support Ukraine, but it swept out some of the Republicans who did the most to keep that support bipartisan.
In the Senate, some Democrats who have expressed support for Ukraine took seats that once belonged to Kyiv’s strongest Republican allies. The most symbolic result came in South Carolina, a state Trump carried by nearly 18 points in 2024. There, Democrat Annie Andrews, who has called for supporting “democratic allies in Ukraine,” won the seat of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, the architect of this year’s Russia sanctions bill.
In Ohio, Sherrod Brown, a former member of the Senate Ukraine Caucus, is returning to the chamber. Roy Cooper and James Talarico, both supporters of aid to Ukraine, won the North Carolina seat vacated by Thom Tillis and the Texas seat held by John Cornyn, who had lost his primary. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton unseated Sen. Roger Marshall after accusing him of “betraying friends in Ukraine” by backing Trump’s Russian diesel plan.
In Oklahoma, however, the seat stays Republican but passes from Alan Armstrong, a supporter of aid to Ukraine, to Kevin Hern, a skeptic of further assistance. And although Democrats kept the seat of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Ukraine lost one of its most experienced coalition builders.
The House results were harder on Ukraine’s bipartisan coalition. One of the biggest seat losses: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican from Pennsylvania, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus and one of the few Republicans who had openly challenged Trump’s accommodating Russia policy. Another Ukraine supporter — Republican Mike Lawler, who defied his leadership to advance the Ukraine Support Act, lost in New York. On the other hand Democrat Marcy Kaptur, a co-founder of the caucus, held her Ohio district, which had been redrawn to make her re-election more difficult.
What the New Majority Can and Cannot Do
Coffey cautioned against reading a change in Congress as a change in Washington’s Ukraine policy.
“The problem with U.S. policy towards Ukraine is not in our legislative branch,” he said. “There’s still bipartisan, widespread support for Ukraine with the Democrats and Republicans. So it’s not as if this is a problem that we are hoping can get fixed after November.”
The problem, he argued, lies with the executive branch, which practices what he called “a very unconventional way of U.S. foreign policymaking.” Coffey expects that to continue regardless of the election.
The president runs foreign policy — and is still likely to entrust his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with the negotiations.
“He’s still going to be sending Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv,” Haring said. “They’re still going to be running shuttle diplomacy. So we shouldn’t expect any change there.”
Congress can summon them to testify, she said, “but ultimately that power resides in the White House.”
Congress’ main lever is the power of the purse. For two years, Haring said, that lever was jammed. Trump ran on eliminating aid to Ukraine, and House Speaker Mike Johnson, though publicly supportive of Ukraine, kept the issue off the floor.
“Now that issue is probably going to change,” Haring said.
With Democrats now set to control both chambers, Haring expects another defense supplemental bill very early on, worth at least $10 billion, that mixes military and energy aid.
“The war has changed massively and the needs have changed massively,” she said. “So it’s time for Congress to do something. And I think congressmen and women feel that pressure.”
The president, though, still has veto power. And in an interview with Politico after the election, Trump said that he would not be afraid to use it.
It requires 67 votes in the Senate and 290 in the House to override a veto — meaning any override would require substantial Republican support.
But Coffey said a president facing a Democratic Congress will be “hamstrung on the domestic agenda” and will need to bargain. He argues that Ukraine funding could become part of that bargain, and Trump might even “privately welcome” a supplemental presented as a Democratic initiative.
“Politically the president doesn’t want to say, look, I got more funding for Ukraine,” Coffey said. “But he certainly would benefit if Congress authorized more funding for Ukraine,” because it would strengthen Washington’s hand in negotiations with Moscow.
Will Democrats Use Their Oversight Power?
What changes most immediately is oversight. A Democratic House gains committee gavels and subpoena power.
“You can bet that if the Democrats do end up controlling the House that there will be plenty of these going on,” Coffey said of hearings and investigations.
He expects bipartisan interest in how decisions to hold back Starlink, intelligence and weapons were made.
“A lot of this seemed very chaotic from the outside,” he said. “That’s the checks and balances, that’s the oversight. We should welcome this.”
Haring expects Democrats to focus on what she called the “administration’s freelancing on Ukraine.” When the Starlink and Starshield restrictions hit, she argued, the officials formally responsible did not appear to have made the decisions.
The Lame Duck: Defense, Not Offense
The new majorities take office on Jan. 3. Until then, the outgoing Congress, still under Republican control, must pass the annual defense authorization bill and fund the government through Sept. 30, 2027.
Haring sees real opportunity in those weeks. Before the vote, she said pro-Ukraine Republicans, including Fitzpatrick, were privately telling people they would hold up nominations and must-pass spending bills the president wants, and attach Ukraine provisions to them.
One amendment under discussion would require Starlink and Starshield to stay on for Ukraine, or require a 48-hour warning before they are switched off, to give the Ukrainians time to adjust. Another would guarantee continuous intelligence support, according to Haring.
“If President Trump wants his big defense bill to pass, he’s going to have to swallow it,” she said.
Coffey was more cautious. He expected more for Ukraine from the lame duck after the 2024 election, and “it didn’t materialize.” Floor time is scarce between Thanksgiving and Christmas, he said, and leaders often slow controversial measures in a session that includes members who have just been voted out.
“There are plenty of opportunities. I hope these opportunities are taken,” he said. “But I don’t think it’ll serve as the silver bullet to get Ukraine in a better position.”
What Kyiv Should Do Now
Coffey urged Kyiv to be balanced and proactive with outreach to new members of both parties, including invitations to visit Ukraine. And he warned against unforced errors.
“The Ukrainians have to be adding and multiplying supporters in Congress, not subtracting and dividing,” he said. “There could be a temptation for that off-the-cuff remark about a particular member of Congress, but you must avoid this.”
Haring urged Kyiv not to write off any part of the spectrum, including the Democratic Socialists of America.
“We haven’t made the right argument to the DSA crowd,” she said. “We convinced Mike Johnson to support Ukraine. He’s winnable. Anyone is winnable. The messenger and the message matter.”
On the morning after the election, Denys Sienik, Ukraine’s charge d’affaires in Washington, said Kyiv would “continue working closely with the Trump administration,” but also called for “strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in both chambers of the U.S. Congress.”
“We welcome any initiative that can help save more lives in Ukraine,” he said. “Our priorities remain unchanged.”
