The Shatterbelt Brief is a weekly column by Brian Whitmore examining the shifting political and geopolitical dynamics of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. The views expressed are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Independence Avenue Media.
Here we go again. Speaking in Kyiv this past weekend, U.S. envoy Jared Kushner said the United States is seeking a “win-win” settlement of Russia’s war against Ukraine — one that respects Vladimir Putin’s “aspirations.”
Kushner, who is U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, and Steve Witkoff, a longtime Trump business associate, were in the Ukrainian capital on Sept. 6 as part of Washington’s latest diplomatic effort to end the war. A day earlier, the two had been in Moscow, where Witkoff lavished praise on Putin, telling the Russian autocrat that when he and Kushner eventually retire and look back on “all these incredible stories and incredible memories,” Putin’s will be “right at the top of it all.”
We’ve seen this movie before, of course. Witkoff has made eight visits to Moscow as a U.S. envoy, with Kushner accompanying him on several of them. And like the plot of the 1993 film Groundhog Day, it plays out the same way over and over again. Witkoff and Kushner hold talks with Kremlin officials who demand a litany of concessions from Kyiv. Those concessions, invariably demands for the surrender of Ukrainian territory and de facto sovereignty, are a nonstarter for Kyiv.
The twist in the plot this time was that Kushner and Witkoff went to Kyiv — for the very first time.
And the reception they received from the Ukrainian media was, let’s just say, less than warm. Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Gordon bluntly confronted Witkoff over his repeated meetings with Putin, asking: “Don’t you find it disgusting to sit at the same table with an international war criminal, the executioner of the Ukrainian people, who is personally responsible for the tragedy in Ukraine?” Ouch!
And while that is the part of Gordon’s question that got the most attention, he also asked Witkoff and Kushner if they understood that “Putin has been deceiving you all this time” and that Russia only understands “the language of force.”
Which brings us back to Kushner’s comments about “win-win” outcomes and Putin’s “aspirations.” So let’s break that down.
First, the win-win part. In Russian strategic culture, international relations is a zero-sum game. In Moscow’s worldview, there are simply no win-win outcomes. Security is a finite commodity, which means that when others are less secure, Russia itself is automatically more secure. The Russian phrase kto-kogo, or “who is screwing whom,” sums up the Kremlin’s approach to negotiations.
And what about Putin’s aspirations? Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov gave away the game, telling reporters after the Sept. 5 meeting with Kushner and Witkoff that Putin wants the war’s “root causes” to be resolved. As Roman Sheremeta, a professor at Case Western Reserve University, noted, “that formulation has a specific meaning and Moscow has used it consistently since 2021. The root causes are not the front line. They are Ukrainian sovereignty itself.”
This is the piece that the U.S. negotiators keep missing. This isn’t about territory. There isn’t a magical land swap that will end the war. It’s not a real estate deal.
“For Putin it’s not just about territory, it’s about the subjugation of the whole of Ukraine,” Timothy Ash, a London-based senior emerging markets sovereign strategist, wrote in the Kyiv Post.
“Putin denies the very right of a truly independent and sovereign Ukraine to exist. That’s the fundamental cause of this war — that for Putin if Ukraine is to exist as a state, then it has to be within Russia’s sphere of influence and to bow to Russia.”
These are “Putin’s aspirations,” and they have never been a secret to anybody paying attention, especially since Putin put it in writing in an infamous July 2021 essay.
Fortunately, the European allies understand this. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wisely brought European officials, including the national security advisers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany to his meetings in Kyiv with Kushner and Witkoff.
And meanwhile, the war grinds on — a fact reportedly acknowledged during negotiations in Kyiv, where the envoys discussed ways to help Ukraine get through what will likely be a difficult winter. Russia continues to bombard civilian targets in Ukrainian cities with ballistic missile attacks, highlighting Kyiv’s dire need for more interceptors. In cities near the front lines, like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian civilians are being hunted by Russian first-person-view drones in a terror campaign grimly dubbed a “human safari.” And an estimated 20,500 children have been illegally abducted from Ukraine by Russia.
The front line in eastern Ukraine remains largely frozen. And Ukraine continues its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs.
And Russia continues to menace Europe with sabotage and hybrid attacks that many see as a harbinger of a wider confrontation.
“Peace will come when the aggressor concludes he is losing. Everything else is choreography,” Sheremeta wrote on Substack.
There is no negotiating with Russia over Ukraine. It can only be defeated. And the sooner everyone understands that, the better.
More commentary from Brian Whitmore: Putin’s Escalation Psyop
