Brian Whitmore is a contributor writing for Independence Avenue Media. The views expressed are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Independence Avenue Media.
As August turns to September, it has become pretty clear that Russia’s vaunted summer offensive in eastern Ukraine was something of a dud.
Just don’t tell Vladimir Putin. Speaking at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, the Kremlin autocrat claimed that the Russian armed forces had seized 270 square kilometers of territory in the Donetsk region in August alone.
This, of course, is pure fantasy. DeepState, which closely tracks and maps the dynamics of the front, calculates that Russia captured just 26 square kilometers in the Donetsk region in August. And the Institute for the Study of War estimated that Russian forces established stable control over only 90 square kilometers across the entire theater of war in August.
Moreover, independent monitors have noted that Ukraine has actually liberated more territory than Russia captured in August. Localized Ukrainian counteroffensives, most notably along the Lyman and Oleksandrivka axes, have reclaimed nearly 130 square kilometers of territory.
Of course, Putin never has been one to let mere facts get in the way of a pithy sound bite. Remember when he imagined a Ukrainian river into existence and claimed imaginary Russian forces had trapped thousands of imaginary Ukrainian troops on its banks? And remember when he claimed that Moscow had seized more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine this year?
The fact of the matter is that this imperial war of aggression is going horribly for Russia. In the first eight months of 2026, Russia’s net territorial gains are close to zero — and these non-gains came at great cost.
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russian forces are averaging 30,000 casualties per month, including soldiers killed in action and those wounded too severely to return to the battlefield. Moscow, meanwhile, has been able to recruit roughly 27,000 new soldiers a month. This attrition rate appears to be unsustainable.
Speculation is rampant that Putin may take the potentially explosive step of launching a full mobilization this fall to make up the shortfall. Barring that, it appears that the Kremlin will intensify its ongoing stealth mobilization, pressuring prisoners, the destitute and young men detained on the streets for minor infractions to enlist.
As a result, Russian men seem to be fleeing the country — with 113,000 crossing into Georgia in the last week of August alone. Meanwhile, Russia’s wartime economy is reeling as Ukraine’s deep strikes on oil refineries and energy infrastructure cause fuel shortages and gas lines.
When things are going this poorly, in addition to just making stuff up Putin has one other go-to move: his classic psyop aimed at convincing the West that he is about to do something really, really crazy.
Like, for example, attacking the United Kingdom.
When the U.K. agreed to give Ukraine classified know-how and technical specifications to assemble Storm Shadow missiles locally, reducing Kyiv’s reliance on Western stockpiles, Russia threatened strikes on British military targets and defense executives. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said flatly that any British military installations or equipment “in Ukraine and beyond its borders” could become legitimate targets.
Or, perhaps, escalating the Kremlin’s ongoing sabotage campaign in Europe.
Russia’s attempt to use an explosive-laden drone in an attack on Leipzig airport in August is just the latest example.
In May, a drone carrying explosives hit an apartment building in Romania. Last September, NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace. Additionally, there was the case of explosives placed on a rail line in Poland, the jamming of aviation systems over Sweden, the hacking of a dam in Norway in 2025 and the foiled plot in 2024 to place explosive devices on cargo planes, just to name a few. Earlier this year, Lithuanian officials arrested nine people accused of plotting assassinations and sabotage across Europe on behalf of Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU.
And of course there is always the Kremlin’s perennial threat to open a new front against Ukraine from Belarus — one that was back in the spotlight when Putin met with Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko in late August.
This week, reports emerged that Belarus is constructing a new military training facility and a dedicated railway terminus in its southern Homiel region, approximately 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This follows Ukrainian media reports earlier in August that Belarus had formed a new airborne assault brigade in the Homiel region. And there has been widespread speculation that Russia is pressuring Belarus to allow broader use of its territory to stage attacks against Ukraine and hybrid operations against NATO.
Any of these threats could be credible. Both British and U.S. intelligence agencies, for example, have raised the alarm about Russian escalation in Europe. And I have been obsessively covering the escalation threat from Belarus in this space.
Or they could be part of an elaborate Kremlin psyop to intimidate the West into abandoning Ukraine.
But if this is the case, the good news, for once, is that much of the West isn’t buying it.
Speaking in Kyiv at Ukrainian Independence Day ceremonies last week, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said: “Despite Russia’s outrageous threats to my country, we will continue our support for Ukraine’s defense.” And European officials say they plan to increase defense support for Ukraine in response to the Russian sabotage campaign.
Maybe, just maybe, we’re finally catching on to Putin’s games.
