Brian Whitmore is a contributor writing for Independence Avenue Media. The views expressed are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Independence Avenue Media.
All is not quiet on the Belarusian front.
From the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the role of Alyaksandr Lukashenko’s autocratic regime in Minsk has been shrouded in a paper-thin veneer of barely plausible deniability.
Sure, Lukashenko allowed Vladimir Putin to mass Russian troops on Belarus’ border with Ukraine and stage the initial phase of the invasion from Belarusian territory. But at the same time, he knew the war was deeply unpopular and therefore stopped short of fully entering the war with Belarusian troops.
But lately, that veneer has become even thinner and even less plausible. The Lukashenko regime’s role as a de facto combatant in Russia’s war against Ukraine — and in Moscow’s escalating aggression against Europe — has become impossible to ignore.
It has been nearly two months since reports emerged that Russia was pressuring Belarus to allow broader use of its territory to stage attacks against Ukraine and hybrid operations against NATO. It has also been two months since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanded that Minsk dismantle signal relay stations in Belarus that Russia uses to steer its drones at targets in Ukraine — or Kyiv would destroy the stations itself. Days later, on June 22, the relay stations went offline.
Batka — or father, as the Belarusian dictator is sometimes called — backed down. Crisis averted, for the moment. Or, perhaps not. The relative quiet in Ukrainian-Belarusian relations since the drama earlier this summer has been deceptive.
Ukrainian media are now reporting that Belarus has formed a new airborne assault brigade in its southern Homiel region, just 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The formation of the new assault brigade, which Minsk has officially acknowledged, continues and deepens a trend the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service has been warning about since early July — that Belarus is actively developing military infrastructure, including training facilities and logistical hubs, near the border.
Given the deepening integration of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces, Ukraine is correct to raise the alarm here. Especially when you consider that Lukashenko has allowed Russia to deploy tactical nuclear-capable systems in Belarus and has been providing Russia with logistical support, including the manufacture and supply of components for Russian missiles, drones and electronic warfare equipment.
This assistance to Moscow is a threat not just to Ukraine but to Europe and NATO as well.
Minsk’s expanding role in Russia’s war against Ukraine comes amid reports that Russia may also be preparing to open up a second front in Europe.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal based on U.S. intelligence assessments, Moscow could be preparing to test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years. Possible scenarios include a cyberattack or a small-scale incursion in Poland or the Baltic states that would be intended to challenge NATO’s unity.
Evidence of an organized Russian sabotage campaign in Europe has also been mounting. In May, a drone carrying explosives hit an apartment building in Romania. Last September, NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace. And this month, a Russian drone packed with military-grade explosives was discovered at an airport in Leipzig, Germany. Earlier this year, Lithuanian officials arrested nine people accused of plotting assassinations and sabotage across Europe on behalf of Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU.
Moreover, according to an investigative report in The Telegraph, based on satellite imagery, leaked documents and data from the U.S.-based private intelligence firm DroneSec, Russia has built a network of at least 10 military bases along its borders with Ukraine and Belarus. The installations are equipped with at least 59 launch rails enabling mass drone attacks that could target Ukraine’s air defenses. They could also put European capitals, such as Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn within range.
The functionality and expanded range of these bases would not be possible without Belarusian cooperation. In an effort to stay in power, Lukashenko has effectively ceded control over domestic infrastructure to Moscow. As a result, Russian forces have unrestricted access to local traffic control, air defense systems and territory to facilitate launch operations.
Keenly aware of the threat from the Putin-Lukashenko axis of autocrats, Ukraine and NATO have made moves to harden their borders with both Russia and Belarus.
Ukraine continues to fortify its border with Belarus, which the Associated Press describes as “a quiet, mine-laden stretch of land closed off to civilians” where “Ukrainian border guards patrol the area around the clock using armored vehicles, drones and other surveillance systems.”
And NATO has unveiled plans to deploy a vast network of drones, sensors and satellites linked through artificial intelligence along its border with Russia and Belarus as part of the alliance’s Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative.
As I have written in this space, Lukashenko’s acquiescence in Russia’s aggression is a result of him being cornered. The Belarusian economy is almost entirely dependent on Russian largesse and Lukashenko’s political survival is dependent on Moscow’s will. But at the same time, as Belarus gets more deeply and more obviously involved in Russia’s war, it risks Ukraine retaliating with its impressive deep-strike capacity.
And Lukashenko also has a problem on the home front: the society he rules wants no part of Russia’s war. In fact, many of those Belarusians actually fighting in Ukraine are doing so as volunteers on the Ukrainian side.
The Belarusian front is far from quiet. And it merits our continued close attention.
