Venezuela, once one of the most prosperous nations in Latin America, is facing what one analyst describes as the consequences of corruption, criminal governance and external interference.
Venezuela was “a country that used to be very rich, with the world’s largest known oil reserves … but which became very corrupt,” said Mike Gonzalez, a senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation.
He argued that the state had evolved into “not a government, but a cartel, a drug cartel,” and that the government that remains in power “is not legitimate” after losing the 2024 election and refusing to transfer authority.
In this interview, part of Independence Avenue Media’s series of conversations on Venezuela, IAM Editor-in-Chief Ia Meurmishvili spoke with Gonzalez about the arrest of Nicolás Maduro; the implications for the wider region, including Mexico; and the role of Cuban forces, which Gonzalez said amounted to “an army of occupation” in Venezuela.
He also warned that U.S. actions in the region would not stop with Venezuela, saying, “The Trump administration quite rightly is very focused in these areas, especially not just Venezuela but also Colombia and Mexico.” … “We will see a lot more of this coming in the coming months and years.”
The discussion also examines U.S. national security concerns tied to narcotics trafficking, political instability and energy markets. Gonzalez pointed to the scale of the drug crisis, saying “about 100,000 people die of drug overdose a year in the U.S.,” a figure higher than the number of Americans killed in either the Vietnam or Korean wars.
He also compared Maduro’s arrest “to the fall of the Berlin Wall,” predicting that “it will “have knock-on effects throughout the region.”
The following interview, recorded January 6, 2026, has been edited for length and clarity.
Ia Meurmishvili, IAM editor in chief: What do you think is happening in Venezuela right now?
Mike Gonzalez, Heritage Foundation senior fellow: A country that used to be very rich, with the world’s largest known oil reserves, about 300 billion — billion with a B — barrels in oil reserves, six times what we have, but which became very corrupt. It became not a government, but a cartel, a drug cartel, run by a cartel known as Cartel de los Soles, the Cartel of the Suns. [Editor’s note: The U.S. Department of Justice has walked back its claim that “Cartel de los Soles” refers to an organized drug cartel, the New York Times reported Monday. According to a revised indictment, the term refers to a “patronage system run by those at the top — referred to as the Cártel de Los Soles or Cartel of the Suns, a reference to the sun insignia affixed to the uniforms of high-ranking Venezuelan military officials.”]
The government in place right now is not legitimate. It lost an election in 2024. It refused to hand over power. [Nicolás] Maduro, who is now the president of Venezuela, he’s the head of the Suns cartel, was indicted in New York, and the Trump administration went and executed an arrest warrant with the FBI in Caracas, extradited him, not losing a single life. I understand only seven people were wounded or injured on the American side, and none of them are in critical condition. All of them are in stable condition.
On the other side, between 40 and 50 were killed. By the way, the vast majority of them were not Venezuelans, they were Cubans. The Cuban government has admitted to this Sunday night. It just published moments ago a picture of the 32 who were killed. Up until Sunday, the Cuban government had denied fervently that it had any troops in Caracas. However, the estimate is about 15,000 Cuban troops. The Cuban footprint is really an army of occupation. And they were the people around Maduro. That’s the reason why more Cubans got killed in the extradition than Venezuelans.
IAM: President Donald Trump’s opponents are saying that this was not a law enforcement operation and that the president is going after Venezuela’s oil. How do you explain the operation?
Gonzalez: First and foremost, Maduro and the interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, actually another indicted thug, [were] very clear in 2019 that Venezuela was going to unleash … a “Bolivarian hurricane” in the streets of its enemies.
Either through narcotics smuggling or through political instability, they set out to undermine the foundations of the United States. So that is, by itself, about 100,000 people die of drug overdose a year in the U.S., more [Americans] than were killed in Vietnam or Korea. And that’s a year.
I think the Trump administration quite rightly is very focused in these areas, especially not just Venezuela but also Colombia and Mexico, where the drugs come from, and we will see a lot more of this coming in the coming months and years.
Now on the oil, Venezuela produces only a million barrels a day, a million, with reserves of 300 billion. So it has six times the reserves of the United States, and we produce 14 times what they do and sell it in the oil market. Most of this is because of mismanagement, because of corruption. La PDVSA [Petróleos de Venezuela, the state-owned oil and gas company], the oil monopoly, became what the Department of the Treasury called a tool for corruption.
It would be to the benefit of the Venezuelans and of the Americas and the whole world if we could actually get more of this heavy crude. The problem with Venezuelan oil is that it’s heavy crude. It mostly sits in the Orinoco Belt. So that presents problems with extraction and problems with refining. You need good management, you need constant investment, and you need to get rid of the corruption. None of this happens when you have a cartel running PDVSA, the oil monopoly. Oil is a concern. Getting Venezuelan oil flowing again and selling in the world market is a concern if you want to reduce prices here in the United States. I don’t understand why Mr. Trump’s political opponents will be upset about this.
IAM: The concern is connected to what will happen to Venezuela in the future. It’s not connected directly to Maduro and his ouster but to how the country will function and whether it will be a long-term security threat to the United States now that Maduro is out. Especially when President Trump said that the U.S. is now running Venezuela. Shed some light on this: How is the U.S. running it? What lies in the future for Venezuela?
Gonzalez: The people with skin in the game are very, very supportive of this. María Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year, is very supportive of this. Edmundo González, who won the election in 2024 only because Machado could not run because Maduro did not allow Machado to run, he is very supportive of this. Venezuelans in Madrid, in New York, in Miami, in Doral, Florida, who are free to express their opinions are over the moon. …
We’re not really running Venezuela directly. I think what the administration is trying to do is run it indirectly by getting Delcy Rodríguez, the vice president — who’s also a thug, who’s also [a] communist drug kingpin — to cooperate with the United States, with Secretary [of State Marco] Rubio and with Trump. … None of us know yet what that cooperation will look like. I think I trust Secretary Rubio and President Trump to follow the situation and act accordingly. They’re very adaptable.
IAM: You mentioned both Cuba and Colombia. President Trump said Colombia has a “sick man” as president right now. What do you make of it? Do you think this operation will turn into a wider regional operation? Is Cuba next? Is Colombia next?
Gonzalez: The arrest of Maduro is somewhat comparable to the fall of the Berlin Wall. This is going to have knock-on effects throughout the region. Cuba depends almost completely on Venezuelan money. Cuba is a failed state. It’s been communist as of three years, as of three days ago. It’s been communist for 67 years. The revolution took a very wealthy country and society and reduced it to shambles.
The Cuban capital, Havana, the city of my birth, is very badly decayed with rats and garbage all over the place. Cuba without Venezuelan subsidies, Cuba without the Venezuelan money, the oil revenues that they used to get from PDVSA, will be a complete basket case. It’s not likely that it can sustain itself. Something has to give.
In the case of Colombia, it’s a different case. Colombia is a democracy. The man that Colombia selected, Gustavo Petro, I follow his Twitter feed. It’s very entertaining, especially at night, after he comes under the influence of something. He begins to get very philosophical. He cites [Colombian author Gabriel] García Márquez. He talks about leopards and unicorns and mystical figures, and I don’t think he is right in his mind if you read what he writes.
Colombia is the world’s largest producer of cocaine, which also [contributes] to the overdose and death of a hundred thousand Americans every year.
Mexico is another important country. … The Mexican government has lost control of huge swaths of the territory, the north. And this is just a fact. There are what’s called the 27 plazas, the 27 areas that are being run by the cartels, especially the Sinaloa cartel. So we already have extraditions taking place led by Americans, American pilots landing and taking out drug kingpins. This has been confirmed to me by Mexican officials, senior officials in the north, that this is happening, this is on the way.
And [Mexican President] Claudia Sheinbaum, another Marxist. I hope you’re picking up a theme here, Marxism. It leads to corruption and the inability to run a state. She’s been very supportive of Maduro, and with good reason, because she’s an ideological mate. …
Obviously, Claudia Sheinbaum is not going to be extradited. Claudia Sheinbaum was elected president. She’s very popular. This is not the case with Maduro, who was not elected anything. But she has lost control of the territory, and we’re getting a lot of drugs from Mexico.
IAM: It’s clear from the national security strategy that most countries in South America are very important to the U.S. How pessimistic or optimistic are you about the region?
Gonzalez: I am extremely optimistic. We have [Argentine President Javier] Milei. Argentina is a key country. Milei, who’s been there for over a year now, has been a very successful president getting the Argentine economy under control and functioning again. In Chile, José Antonio Kast, a friend of mine, has just been elected. He’s about to take over from the Marxist [Gabriel] Boric. …
We’re going to get a conservative president in Peru. We’re going to get a conservative president elected in Colombia as well. Petro will not be able to have to help anybody get elected. He’s very unpopular. He’s a joke. He’s seen as a joke by Colombians. We’re likely to get a conservative in Colombia as well. We got a conservative in Bolivia in President [Rodrigo] Paz. …
We got a conservative president in Paraguay who’s also doing great things. Panama, I met with the president, and he received me in the palace last year. He wanted to talk to me about being arrested by [former Panamanian dictator Manuel] Noriega because he was also arrested by Noriega. Look, I’m generally optimistic always, but this time I have reason to be.
