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Is Azerbaijan Standing Up to Russia?

Former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Robert Cekuta unpacks the growing tensions between Baku and Moscow, Azerbaijan’s evolving regional alliances, and what’s at stake for U.S. interests in the South Caucasus.

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WASHINGTON, D.C. (Independence Avenue Media) – Ambassador Robert F. Cekuta, a former senior U.S. diplomat with four decades of experience in international relations, served in key posts across Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Now a lecturer at American University in Washington, Cekuta is uniquely positioned to assess the policy implications of energy, security, and diplomacy in complex regions like the South Caucasus, where he was U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan from 2015 to 2018.

Ambassador Cekuta offers Independence Avenue Media insights regarding the latest escalation of tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan. Each country has detained citizens of the other in tit-for-tat arrests that have, to date, resulted in the death of two ethnic Azerbaijani brothers in Russian custody. Baku responded by arresting Sputnik journalists it accused of working with Russian intelligence services.

Cekuta places the unfolding crisis in a longer geopolitical timeline, cautioning that, while Azerbaijan has always had to navigate uneasy ties with Moscow, Russia’s recent actions—including the downing of an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft in December 2024—have heightened tensions and reaffirmed Baku’s drive to safeguard its independence and sovereignty.

The conversation also explores Azerbaijan’s evolving strategic partnerships, particularly with Turkey, and its implications for regional dynamics involving Iran, Armenia, and Georgia. Cekuta notes that while Baku is pragmatic in its foreign policy, it remains deeply aware of Azerbaijan’s precarious neighborhood—being the only country that borders both Russia and Iran—as well as the diminution of Russian power due to its ongoing war in Ukraine.

Finally, the ambassador discusses U.S. interests in Azerbaijan, the fragile state of Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations, and the potential strategic impact of new transit routes such as the Zangezur corridor. He emphasizes that lasting regional peace will require more than a signed agreement—it will demand trust-building, regional integration, and sustained international engagement, including by the United States.

Ia Meurmishvili

Ia Meurmishvili

Ia Meurmishvili is Editor in Chief and co-founder of Independence Avenue Media. Previously she served as managing editor of Voice of America's Georgian service and TV anchor. She is also a public speaker, conference moderator, and founder of Villa Chven Winery in her native Georgia.

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